Tim Redmond

Prop. 34: We’re making progress

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It’s always easy after a losing campaign to make excuses and play up the positive, but there really is some good news in the Prop. 34 loss. For starters, it put the death penalty back on the agenda in the state. That’s a big deal — one of the reasons there were so many undecided voters going into the last couple of weeks of the election was the fact that there haven’t been any executions in a while, so the major news media haven’t been talking about the issue. For a lot of younger voters, it’s never even been on the radar.

George McIntire reported from the No on 34 party last night, and said that Jeanne Woodford, the former San Quentin warden who was the lead proponent of the measure, remained upbeat. She pointed out that the last time the death penalty was on the ballot, 70 percent of the voters supported it. Now, that’s down to a narrow 55 percent — and with a little more money to get the message out, the nubmers could have been narrower still.

So we’re moving in the right direction. It’s not as fast as I’d like, but the death penalty is on life support and won’t be around forever.

At least Prop. 30 is passing

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I suspected that when all the votes were in, Prop. 30 might squeak through, and right now it looks like it wll. That’s really good news, because I don’t know what we’d be doing tomorrow if the results were different. Statewide it’s not all bad — Prop. 32 is toast, Prop. 39 has won and I think ol’ Jerry B pulled it out on Prop. 30, which is now ahewad 52-48.

Preliminary RCV points to Breed, Crowley

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How incredibly strange: District Five, the most left-leaning district in the city, just elected a moderate supervisor who supports the sit-lie law and has the backing of the landlords. District 7, the most conserative district, elected a labor guy who may sometimes be a swing vote.

The preliminary RCV results show London Breed winning in D5 and FX Crowley in D7. The D7 results are close and could change; the D5 results are not. Promoted by landlord money and helped by two billionaires attacking incumbent Christina Olague, Breed is now in a position to move the board to the right.

Prop. 30 is going to be close. Really close

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Without Los Angeles, without San Francisco, with mostly the conservative counties in, it’s 49 yes, 51 no on the ballot measure that will determine the fate of California. As more returns come in, it’s inching up, slowly, and there’s still a good chance that it will squeak through. The death-penalty repeal is starting to look bad; at 55 no, 43 yes, it’s not looking good.

Finally, some clarity in SF

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So right after I complained about SF dragging its feet on returns, we get another big chunk and it shows Eric Mar taking D1 handily. Amazing: A carpet-bombing campaign of big money, and the quiet progressive pulls it out.

Now: He had the support of Rose Pak, but mostly he had troops on the ground, a lot of them from the labor movement and a lot of them pro-tenant folks who saw the clear and present danger that David Lee would bring to City Hall.

Lee has to be in shock — how can you spend $800,000 and lose in a district race? The guy got 7,300 votes; that’s about $109 a vote. Stunning.

But it shows that, as former Sup. Chris Daly put it, “when progressive are united, we win.”

Progressives were never united in D5 — except in their opposition to London Breed. So now we have to see if the second-place votes break that way — or if a district that elected two Green Party members will wind up putting a moderate centrist on the board.

It’s odd — right now, it appears that either Norman Yee or F.X. Crowley will win in D7, making the most conservative district in the city a swing vote. And if London Breed is elected, the most liberal district in the city could become a swing vote. Weird times.

Tomorrow I’ll try to get some perspective on how all of this happened.

Why are SF and LA so slooooow?

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Over at the Prop. 34 party, where the early returns aren’t looking good, everyone’s trying to keep spirits up by noting that, while the measure to repeal the death penalty is losing, virtually no results from San Francisco or Los Angeles have been posted. Why are the two most prominent political cities in the state so slooow to post results? At 10pm, all SF has are absentees and a tiny handful of precincts. LA has sent nothing to the Secretary of State. Come on, folks: Enquiring minds want to know.

Mar jubilant at early returns

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The first precinct reports are coming in — just a few — and they share Sup. Eric Mar holding and even expanding his lead in District 1. Too early to call it, but Mar is jubilant and so are his supporters. Joe Fitzgerald send this report:

If there was a loud and clear message from the Eric Mar supporters at his election party, it was that realtors and rent-control opponents can’t keep a good progressive down.

“We’re going to kick their ass,” said Mar. “We’re going to show that the anti-rent control, realtors and big business people downtown can’t do this again.”

Mar was talking about the barrage of hit mailers that have attacked him relentlessly in the past few weeks.

The residents themselves were fed up with it.

“I like to use two bags to recycle all this shit,” Brian Hudgins, a novelist from the neighborhood told us. He was amazed by how Lee, an obvious moderate, targeted his liberal, progressive apartment complex.

“The mailers turned people off,” Mar said.

Norman Ten is an ardent Mar supporter. Wearing his blue “Eric Mar for Supervisor” shirt, he said that as a scientist, he looks at the facts when he votes.

“That David Lee guy had offices and headquarters over on Post street. Now that’s not even in the Richmond, now is it?” he said.

Chris Daly, the fiery progressive ex-supervisor even made an appearance at Mar’s party. He saw this election as a particularly blatant attack on progressives.

“Its just like my 2006 race,” he said. “But when progressive San Francisco is united, we win.”

First results: Mar, Breed in the lead

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Remember, these are the early absentees. They may not reflect the carpet-bombing attacks of the last week. And they always tend to run a bit conservative. But the results in D1 are stunning: After enduring an $800,000 attack campaign, Sup. Eric Mar has a lead of almost five points, 48-43. Since he’s got a massive GOTV program, he’s positioned remarkably well.

District 5 is equally stark: London Breed has a huge lead, 32-19, over Sup. Christina Olague. But here’s where it will get interesting: Breed may not get a lot of second-place votes — and a group of challengers who are roughly in the same political camp are bunched up right behind her with about 13 percent of the vote. This one will absolutely be a test of RCV.

District 7 is a surprise only in that the most conservative of the major candidates, Mike Garcia — who had the support of the incumbent, Sean Elsbernd — is in third place, well behind Norman Yee and F.X. Crowley. Hard to see how he’s going to emerge from that with a victory — meaning D7 could move out of the conservative camp and become a swing district.

All of the important ballot measures are doing fine. Prop. A looks like it will pass (66 percent from the absentees), Prop. B is passing easily, the Housing Trust Fund, Prop. C is way ahead, the Gross Receipts Tax, Prop. E, is winning handily … and the moronic “drain Hetch Hetchy” plan is going down to defeat.

 

State starts to move the right way

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State results still skewed to the conservative counties (except for San Mateo) and the number are looking lots, lots better. Prop. 30 is behind 51-48, which almost exactly mirrors Prop. 32, which is winning 51-48. This is a good trend, generally; if we’re this close in the conservative absentees, from the conservative counties, we may actually pull this election out.

These are counties, for example, where repealing the death penalty is losing 55-45, and statewide, the polls show that almost a dead heat.

Very early, conservative counties no on 30, yes on 32

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There’s a scattering of early returns, mostly from conservative Central Valley counties, and they should everything bad happening — Prop. 30 failing, Prop. 32 winning, Prop. 34 and 37 losing …. but LA isn’t in, the Bay Area isn’t in, and none of this means much. Except: Prop. 36, the repeal of three-strikes, is going to win overwhelmingly. It looks like Prop. 39, ending a billion-dollar tax loophole, is going to win handily. And the attempt by Mercury Insurance once again to rewrite the state’s car-insurance laws is going down to defeat.

Prop. 30 is about two points behind Prop. 32, and since Prop. 32’s going to get crushed, that’s maybe not a bad place to be.

I’m not worried yet.

Now let’s worry about California

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As expected, Obama is headed for victory. Elizabeth Warren has won in MA, the tea-party rape-nut lost in Indiana, the House will stay (more narrowly) Republican, the Senate Democratic.

It looks like marriage equality is winning in every state where it’s on the ballot.

So now I can start to worry about Prop. 30 and the future of California, and Districts 1and 5 and the future of San Francisco.

 

 

What’s happening tonight

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According to the SF Department of Elections, the first results — including just the absentees received before Election Day — will be posted here at about 8:45. That will include a preliminary ranked-choice voting run, which won’t be conclusive but will give people a sense of where the races are headed.

We’ll be posting regular updates on this blog through the evening, trying to make sense of the numbers and reporting from the various Election Night events. Join us for the latest news and analysis.

I’d guess by the time the polls close in California it will be pretty clear what’s happening on the national level.

 

Vote early and often

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The most expensive, ugliest, longest and most money-dominated election in my memory is finally winding down, and unless something really weird happens, Obama’s going to win another term. It’s likely the Democrats will control the Senate and the GOP will retain a narrow edge in the house, meaning four more years of gridlock (and possibly the end of Rep. Nancy Pelosi’s career).

But the real message will be the role of big money — not just ordinary big money, but billionaire money — in California and San Francisco elections.

The state ballot has become a billionaire playground, with four of the ten initiatives created, written, put on the ballot and funded by stinking rich individuals who have their own personal and political agendas. In San Francisco, billionaires Ron Conway and Thomas Coates are trying to buy the District 5 election. An Arizona group linked to the Koch brothers is trying to shut down Prop. 30 (and leave the state in fiscal disaster).

And I’ve never seen as much real-estate money go into one supervisorial district.

We know both presidential campaigns are billion-dollar operations, and a lot of the same bad money is going into each of them. But on the local level, it’s a very different situation. There’s a concerted campaign here to drive progressives out of local office and install people more friendly to landlords and developers — at a time when the city’s going to be facing the greatest displacement pressure since the first dot-com boom. You don’t see the Association of Realtors putting hundreds of thousands of dollars into local races very often; there’s an opportunity here and they see it and they want to weaken tenant protections so they can make more money.

One of the best arguments in favor of district elections is that money doesn’t necessarily buy electoral success. In a district with roughly 30,000 voters, it’s possible to practice old-fashioned grassroots retail politics, to win by knocking on doors and going to house parties and meeting people. It’s not all about TV ads. And if that holds up with this election, Sup. Eric Mar — with a far superior field operation — will survive the blistering assault he’s under in District 1. If David Lee — who has taken the Mitt Romney approach and refused to speak to reporters (they might ask him a question or two about his inaccurate campaign dirt) — wins, it will be the greatest blow to democracy in San Francisco that we’ve seen in years.

On the other hand, if the D1 voters reject all that money and sleaze and Mar wins — and if the District 5 voters reject the billionaire money and someone other than London Breed wins — San Francisco will be sending a profound message: We don’t want your dirty money here, and our votes are not for sale.

Polls are open until 8. Vote early and often.

Who’s really behind the No on Prop. 30 ads?

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The Fair Political Practices Commission released a bit of information about who just dumped $11 million into the No and 30 and Yes on 32 campaigns, and on the surface, the disclosure doesn’t tell much except that secretive PAC money moves around in tight circles. The head of the FPPC, Ann Ravel, called it “money laundering,” which sounds like a fairly accurate description. But all the FPPC records really show is that one nonprofit called Americans for Job Security and another called The Center to Protect Patient Rights moved the cash into the Arizona-based Americans for Responsible Leadership, which sent the money to California.

Who the hell are any of these groups? Technically, nobody knows, since they don’t disclose their donors. The SacBee notes that:

Although it could not be confirmed, the Center to Protect Patient Rights has been connected to Kansas-based Koch Industries, whose owners, David H. Koch and Charles G. Koch, are conservative advocates.

“Conservative advocates” is a kind way of putting it.

When the Bee called Koch HQ, a flak there said her guys weren’t involved:

Asked about reported ties to the Center to Protect Patient Rights, Koch Companies Public Sector spokeswoman Melissa Cohlmia said in an email, “Contrary to some media reports, Koch Industries, Charles Koch, and David Koch have not provided any financial support in favor of Proposition 32 and are not involved in this issue.”

Ah, but that’s a bit of a stretch. The LA Times has actually done some investigative work on this, and it’s pretty clear that the Center to Protect Patient Rights IS the Koch brothers, and that any money that comes through there is part of the brothers right-wing network.

I’m surprised Jerry Brown hasn’t jumped all over this. A big ol’ press conference event with the guv denouncing the (actual) vast right-wing conspiracy to shut down unions and drive California off the fiscal cliff might be the boost Prop. 30 needs in the final day.

 

 

So-called DV group doing PG&E’s dirty work

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Any pretense that the group called San Francisco Women for for Responsibility and an Accountable Supervisor is anything more than a downtown sham vanished with the arrival in District 5 mailboxes Nov. 3 of a mailer attacking Sup. Christina Olague for supporting public power.

The mailer uses pictures of Olague and Julian Davis — and that alone is a not-so-subtle attack on Olague. Davis has lost all credibility in the race, thanks to a string of allegations that he groped women.

It then goes after the two for “support [ing] a $20 million taxpayer giveaway to Big Oil.” The utterly misleading line is based on Olague’s vote to support Clean Power SF, a community choice aggregation program that has the support of public power advocates all over California.

Olague’s not supporting Shell Oil; she just realized, as did a supermajority of the board (including both left stalwarts David Campos and John Avalos and the far more conservative Scott Wiener) that the program makes sense for San Francisco and will lead in the long term to much greater energy self-reliance. The only ones putting out the Shell Oil line are PG&E and its house union, IBEW Local 1245.

Oh, and now a group that supposedly advocates for domestic violence victims.

This is a disgrace, an embarassment to the district and the city. Ron Conway and Thomas Coates are attacking Olague because they’re afraid she’ll vote against their development and landlord interests, not because they care about domestic violence.

This election matters, a lot. It’s clear where the big-money interests are; I hope D5 residents reject this attempt to buy the election.

 

The billionaire attack on D5

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The attack on Sup. Christina Olague, funded by a couple of right-wing billionaires, is in full swing in District 5, with mailers, robocalls, a social-media buy and even TV ads. It’s a disgraceful effort to buy an election in the final week, a flood of sleaze that’s outrageous even by modern political standards.

On the surface, the PAC called San Francisco Women for Responsibility and an Accountable Supervisor is talking about domestic violence. One mailer features a woman whose daughter was killed by an abuser saying she is “appaled” that Sheriff Ross Mirkarimi still has his job — and that Olague voted not to throw him out. A 60-second TV ad features Ivory Madison, the Mirkarimi neighbor whose video was the centerpiece of the campaign to oust the sheriff.

But the PAC is entirely funded by Ron Conway, his wife Gayle, and Thomas Coates. Conway hasn’t been a leading voice on domestic violence issues, and neither has Coates — they are business people who are primarily interested in making money. In the case of Conway, he’s someone who has publicly announced that he wants to “take San Francisco back” from progressives and install more big-business-friendly politicians at City Hall. Coates is a real-estate investor who has spent a lot of time and money fighting to limit tenant-protection laws.

Why are these two so interested in the D5 race? Well, in an email, Conway told me that “the Committee that my wife Gayle and other women, including longtime anti-domestic violence advocates, have formed and that I and others support exists solely to oppose Christina Olague because she put her own politics ahead of women and the victims and survivors of domestic abuse.”

But it’s eminently clear that there’s a larger agenda here, that the wealthy donors are using the domestic violence issue to get rid of a supervisor who they see as not sufficiently friendly to their economic interests. And there’s probably a bit of payback involved: Olague defied the mayor with her Mirkarimi vote — and while a lot of observers still say this was all a setup to demonstrate her independence in time for the election, Conway, one of the mayor’s closest allies and advisors, clearly didn’t get that message.

Coates lives in Los Angeles. Conway lives in Pacific Heights. Neither of them has any connection the D5 — except for their desire to get rid of Olague. They’ve taken a real, serious issue — domestic violence — and used it to their own political advantage.

We haven’t endorsed Olague, but we know a shady scam when we see one, and that’s exactly what this is. The voters of District 5 should reject this kind of outside-influence politics and not let a couple of billionaires decide the future of their the city.

Romney has lost. Unless ….

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Polls aren’t perfect, but a lot of polls that come to the same conclusion are rarely wrong, at least not by much, and all the polling data suggests that in the critical swing states, Mitt Romney is SOL. Sure, the GOP camp is keeping up hope, but everyone knows that the odds are heavily in favor of the re-election of Barack Obama. In the spring of 2010, I bet on the Giants winning the World Series at 20-1 (nice payoff, that one), but I wouldn’t even take those odds on Romney today.

And since Hurricane Sandy has left Ohio and Pennsylvania relatively intact (no massive poll closures for lack of electrict power), and the voter-suppression laws have been put on hold by the courts, there’s really nothing game-changing available to Romney’s gang of crooks — except this.

I’m with the Wonkette folks — I don’t typically buy into the voting-machines-are-rigged-by-secret-Bain-operatives kinds of theories. But we all know the 2000 election was stolen, and I’m pretty sure that Willie Brown and his appointed elections chief, Tammy Haygood, did something fishy (maybe very fishy, judging by ballot boxes floating in the Bay) to prevent a public-power measure from passing in 2001. And we know that the voter ID laws were carefully designed to keep African Americans, Latinos, seniors and students away from the polls this fall. And we know that Romney’s backers are among the most powerful and secretive people in the world; if there really were groups like the Bilderbergs and the Masons running the world, Romney wouldn’t be allowed in the back rooms (too dumb) but his big-money allies would be there.

Could it be possible that somebody in Romneyland is going to try to pull a modern-day version of the hanging-chad caper?

We’d be fools not to think it’s on the agenda. Doesn’t mean they can pull it off (and seriously, if the president of the United States doesn’t have people who can monitor and put a check on this shit, then he doesn’t deserve the title). But if some of those swing states suddenly go all Florida, 2000 on us and start showing up red on the electoral map, it won’t be because of Obama’s college transcripts.

So go ahead, trolls, tell me how nuts I am. You’re probably right; everything’s going to be Just Fine.

Now Disney gets a nice tax break

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There’s an element of Disney buying Lucasfilm that hasn’t made the news yet: The giant SoCal outfit is now inheriting Lucas’s nifty annual tax break, cheating San Francisco out of property taxes worth about $60 million. See, part of what Disney gets is that shiny Lucas building in the Presidio — a private office complex built in a national park. And since it’s on federal land, not San Francisco land, Lucas doesn’t pay the city property taxes.

Nice to know the rest of us working stiffs are helping Disney out.

Oh, and $4 billion for the entire Lucas empire? Disney got it cheap.

Why free Muni for kids makes sense

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For a moment this morning, Mission Street looked the way it might in a world where the city actually got beyond cars. About a million people were a block away, on Market, and everyone with an ounce of sense knew not to try to drive downtown. So I rode my bike along a busy city street that was given over entirely to pedestrians, bicycles and Muni buses. The buses moved at a rapid clip with no traffic to slow them down. And despite the parade a few hundred feet to the north, it felt … quiet. Peaceful. Yes, Mission Street.

How totally cool.

Imagine how easy it would be for transit to serve the downtown corridor if nobody drove cars. Imagine how comfortable people would be biking and walking to work. It just takes a Giants World Series (and a huge regional parade) to show us that a different urban world is possible.

Which brings me to free Muni for kids.

There’s enough money now, from a federal grant, to do a pilot program in San Francisco. Except that Sup. Scott Wiener thinks the money should go to general system improvements. I get it — Muni has lots of problems and Wiener thinks we should fix the system for everyone before we make it free for some.

I admit I’m biased — I have two kids who go to public school, and ride Muni. The school bus system is nearly gone; most kids can’t get an old-fashioned yellow bus in the morning or at night. So their only option is the have parents or friends drive them, or to ride Muni. Yeah, it would save me a little money if my kids didn’t have to pay, but it’s not making me choose between food and rent.

For a lot of low-income familes, the cost of Muni fare is a real issue — and it’s difficult getting a reduced-fare youth pass. (Among other things, you need a birth certificate or passport to prove your age; you think immigrant families including some members without documents are going to go to a government agency and present that sort of information?) It seems to me it’s the city’s responsibility to help young people get to school, and since we can’t afford school buses, this is one of the best options.

There’s another side of the story, though. Getting kids to ride Muni as a matter of normal course — showing them that it’s the best way to get around town — is a huge investment in the future. We can’t keep going on the way we are with personal automobiles, particularly in urban areas. We want to get to the point where just about everyone uses Muni or rides a bike or walks — and I say, start young.

 

Hurricane Sandy and climate change

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I guess it’s no surprise that most of the news media coverage of Hurricane Sandy was focused on the immediate — when you have six million people without power and transit systems paralyzed and at least 38 deaths, you deal with that stuff first. There will be plenty of time later to talk about causes and preparadness and what to do next time.

But I expected a little more mainstream coverage of the clear and obvious fact that this storm — and the many more severe storms that are likely to follow in places that aren’t used to seeing this type of weather — is the result of climate change caused by humans. 

The scientists — at least, all but the looney ones — are not in denial. The oceans are warmer than they were 20 years ago, and the warm water extends farther north. Warmer oceans mean more, and stornger, hurricanes:

Scientists have long taken a similarly cautious stance, but more are starting to drop the caveat and link climate change directly to intense storms and other extreme weather events, such as the warm 2012 winter in the eastern U.S. and the frigid one in Europe at the same time.

There have been three presidential debates. Both candidates have suspended campaigning because of Sandy. Mitt Romney’s out collecting cans of food that the Red Cross doesn’t want.But at no point in this campaign has climate change been a serious issue.

Maybe people will start paying attention now. Maybe a $20 billion hit to the heavily populated East Coast areas where the heart of the nation’s banking and politics business are will wake up the White House and Congress. Because this ship has sailed — the damage already done is serious and can’t easily be repaired. And preventing serious from becoming catastrophic is now our only option, and we’re running out of time.

Most of Manhattan and Long Island is less than two feet about sea level. Unless you’re going to build massive dikes around both of them, those places are going to be worse off than south Florida in a few years. Sandy was a Category 1 when it hit the Jersey shore; in a few years, that region is going to be dealing with Category 3 and 4 storms and the flooding will be devastating.

Can we please talk about this?

The sleazy money typhoon

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CORRECTION: This article has been updated to correct inaccurate information.

 

The flood of money into the San Francisco elections over the past month is mind-boggling. We’ve never seen this level of independent-expenditure attacks in district elections. We’ve never seen an out-of-nowhere conservative candidate with no political experience at all spend half a million of his own money to buy a San Francisco Assembly seat. It could be a very ugly Nov. 6.

The most dramatic entry in the last-minute sewer-money contest is the political action committee just formed to attack Sup. Christina Olague over her vote to retain Sheriff Ross Mirkarimi. San Francisco Women for Responsibility and Accountable Supervisor exists only to oppose Olague; Ron Conway, a close ally Mayor Ed Lee, has thrown $20,000 into the group, and his wife Gayle put up $49,000. Linda Voight, who is married to real-estate industry mogul and rent-control foe Thomas Coates, put up another $49,000. That more than $100,000 coming in during the last 10 days of a campaign and it’s an unprecedented amount of negative money for a district race.

The idea that a tech titan and a big landlord would use the Mirkarimi vote in a hit-campaign is disturbing to a lot of people, particularly Ted Gullicksen, who runs the San Francisco Tenants Union:

Conway’s committee attacks Christina Olague for supporting Ross Mirkarimi.  But really he is just using the issue of domestic violence as a tool to unseat a political opponent.  By doing so, he is cheapening the issue of domestic violence to further his crass political agenda of repealing rent control.

(Conway, in an Oct. 30 note, says he does not oppose San Francisco’s rent control laws. Coates has put significant money into anti-rent-control efforts.)

It’s also, apparently, payback from two of the mayor’s money guys — and it makes a screwy election even stranger. Particularly since none of the other prominent candidates in D5 are out there going after Olague on her vote and most of them probably would have voted the same way.

Conventional wisdom is that attacking Olague helps London Breed, who is the candidate the landlords have chosen (and spent $40,000 on). But nobody knows exactly what will happen when all the ranked-choice ballots are counted. John Rizzo has largely weathered the story of attacks from all sides and will be #2 on a lot of ballots. I think Julian Davis is finished, and more of his supporters will go to Rizzo or Olague than to Breed.

Still, it’s entirely possible that the most progressive district in the city will be represented by someone who is likely to be more aligned with the moderates and conservatives than with the left.

Then there’s Michael Breyer, who has now put more than $500,000 of his own money into the Assembly race against Assessor Phil Ting. Breyer’s never done anything in local politics; he claims to talk about old-fashioned San Francisco values and hypes his family members from past generations who have been active in the community, but he grew up on the East Coast and moved here in 2002. But with that kind of money, the more conservative candidate has been able to bring the race close to even.

And if he can use his own fortune to top Ting — who’s been a decent Assessor and has long ties to the community — it’s going to be a bad moment for San Francisco politics.

 

 

The Clear and Present Danger to Prop. 30 (and all of us)

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This is suddenly getting serious, very serious. A secretive super PCA out of Arizona, where all bad things seem to originate, just put $11 million into a No on 30/Yes on 32 operation, and while it’s likely not enough to pass 32, which is trailing pretty far behind in the polls — and might actually benefit from news that a group allegedly pushing for campaign transparency is living off shadowy money, the money’s already hurting 30.

Let us remember: If Prop. 30 goes down, the state goes off a fiscal cliff. Schools get his with cuts so brutal that the school year my have to be cut by a couple of weeks or more. The University of California and California State University systems will cease to function in anything remotely resembling their current state, which is already a disaster. Cities and counties will get hit, social services will suffer, more parks will close — it’s almost too awful to think about.

I didn’t write Prop. 30; I would have left out the sales tax and hiked the rate even more on the wealthiest. But it’s a compromise deal, and it’s not only good for the state it’s absolutely essential. And the Big Boys out of the state of Joe Arpaio are trying to undermine it.

Add that in to Molly Munger’s unconscionable efforts to take down Prop. 30 (at this point, it seems like nothing but sour grapes since her Prop. 38 is clearly going to lose) and you have a recipe for disaster.

Look, we all know Obama’s going to win California, and some of us don’t have a contested supervisorial election. But there’s lots of stuff on the local ballot that matters — and if Prop. 30 goes down, nothing else is going to matter because (unless by some miracle the Dems get a two-thirds majority in both houses and can pass other taxes) this state’s going down the tubes.

So go vote Yes on 30. Vote yes on 38, too, if you want, although a lot of people are mad enough at Munger to vote no. But 30 is the one that matters. Vote early and often.

 

The Milk Club’s strange endorsement vote

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The Harvey Milk Club has decided not to rescind its endorsement of Julian Davis for supervisor in District 5 — although the vote may say more about the geopolitics of the race than the way the club members feel about Davis.

The club members had two resolutions in front of them Oct. 22, a night that also featured the third presidential debate and the do-or-die Giants game. The first resolution would have withdrawn the club’s support for Davis, who lost most of his progressive endorsements after he was accused of groping a woman at a campaign event six years ago. The second would have given an unranked three-way endorsement to Sup. Christina Olague, John Rizzo, and Thea Selby.

Of course, the second resolution wouldn’t even come up unless two-thirds of the club members voted in favor of the first.

And while a number of club members are as unhappy as the rest of the left about Davis’s behavior, the real drama involved the efforts of other candidates in the race to prevent Olague from getting the nod.

Rizzo, president of the Community College Board, told me he showed up and voted against the first resolution. “I didn’t campaign, I didn’t organize, I just showed up for 15 minutes and voted no,” he said. Rizzo’s not supporting or working with Davis — so why try to protect the guy’s Milk Club endorsement? Well, Rizzo knows that Olague is a much bigger threat to him than Davis, whose campaign is on the ropes. So he voted in his own self-interest. 

Rizzo agreed it was “very odd” for him to be in this position, but said he was campaigning to win and didn’t want to see a front-running competitor getting a major club endorsement.

Gabriel Haaland, a longtime Milk Club member who supports Olague, wasn’t happy with that. “In the end, I want a progressive supervisor,” he said. “John and Christina are my top choices, but I don’t want to see London Breed get elected.”

Ah, that’s the subtext here — and it’s a serious one. The left is worried about Breed, who’s the beneficiary of a well-funded independent expenditure campaign by the San Francisco Association of Realtors. That group, which is also pushing hard to oust Eric Mar in District 1, wants to weaken the power of tenants on the Board of Supervisors, and sees Breed as friendly to that agenda.

Breed’s a serious contender — a lot of observers think that she and Olague are in a two-way race, although with ranked-choice voting, Rizzo is also very much in the running, as, potentially, is Thea Selby.

Breed’s supporters didn’t want to see the Milk Club go with Olague, either, and some showed up to vote against rescinding the Davis endorsement. Breed told me she wasn’t actively involved: “I just wanted to stay out of it,” she said. She acknowledged, though, that some of her supporters had told her about the meeting and “there were some people that went there.”

In the end, Club President Glendon Hyde told me, the vote was 53 yes, 42 no — far short of the two-thirds needed to reverse the endorsement.

There were, by all accounts, plenty of Davis supporters in the room. But it’s likely that the combination of Breed supporters and Rizzo supporters was enough to sway the vote and ensure that the Milk Club retained Davis as its only choice.

Both Breed and Rizzo denied working together — but the result was the same: The Milk Club is now about the only significant progressive group in the city still siding with Davis.

 

Nudity and tourism

69

KQED’s Forum weighed in on Sup. Scott Wiener’s anti-nudity law Oct. 18, and I particularly enjoyed the attempts by all to avoid the use of the word “cockring.” I taped a show for KPFA’s morning mix (to air 7:30 am Oct. 19) and host John Hamilton told me that “cockring” wasn’t on the FCC list of unacceptable words and it was ok to use it, but that’s KPFA, not KQED. I also laughed at Michael Krasny confessing that he was beeing “lookist” when he said he’d heard that the men at Jane Warner Plaza weren’t all that good-looking.

At any rate, here’s the real story: A friend’s mom was visiting recently from Switzerland, and what did she want to do in San Francisco? She wanted to go to the Castro and see the naked men. Of course.

You see the buses going down Market Street with all the tourists, sticking their cameras out the window to get a shot? It’s a tourist attraction. 

Remember — when the sea lions first arrived at Fisherman’s Wharf about 20 years ago, and hauled themselves up on the docks, the city tried to get them to leave — they were loud and stinky and unappealing. But they wouldn’t go — and after a few weeks, the merchants realized how good they were for business.

I asked the Convention and Visitors Bureau, now known as SF Travel, if banning nudity might be bad for the tourist industry — and the local economy. The folks there haven’t gotten back to me. But I don’t know; maybe the city economist should study this nudity ban.