Remember, these are the early absentees. They may not reflect the carpet-bombing attacks of the last week. And they always tend to run a bit conservative. But the results in D1 are stunning: After enduring an $800,000 attack campaign, Sup. Eric Mar has a lead of almost five points, 48-43. Since he’s got a massive GOTV program, he’s positioned remarkably well.
District 5 is equally stark: London Breed has a huge lead, 32-19, over Sup. Christina Olague. But here’s where it will get interesting: Breed may not get a lot of second-place votes — and a group of challengers who are roughly in the same political camp are bunched up right behind her with about 13 percent of the vote. This one will absolutely be a test of RCV.
District 7 is a surprise only in that the most conservative of the major candidates, Mike Garcia — who had the support of the incumbent, Sean Elsbernd — is in third place, well behind Norman Yee and F.X. Crowley. Hard to see how he’s going to emerge from that with a victory — meaning D7 could move out of the conservative camp and become a swing district.
All of the important ballot measures are doing fine. Prop. A looks like it will pass (66 percent from the absentees), Prop. B is passing easily, the Housing Trust Fund, Prop. C is way ahead, the Gross Receipts Tax, Prop. E, is winning handily … and the moronic “drain Hetch Hetchy” plan is going down to defeat.