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Politics Blog

From the Linda Colfax party

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Alex Emslie reports from the Colfax party:


A wild cheer exploded from the crowd of 50 Linda Colfax supporters when the numbers appeared on the screen at Mars Bar. With 99 percent of the precincts counted, Colfax had 55 percent of the vote. “I fell thrilled, speechless,” she said, pausing to search for worlds. “I’m relived, thrilled and grateful.”


As a lesbian and public defender, Colfax will bring diversity to the bench not seen in decades. “The last time a lesbian was appointed to the the SF bench it was Mary Morgan in 1981, and I don’t know the last time a sitting public defender was appointed to the bench,” she said.


 

Whoa — we could actually win this thing

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For the first time tonight, Prop. 16 is losing. As more results come in, PG&E’s lead has been slipping, and now the measure is in the loss column. Amazing.

Prop. 16 is getting very tight — PG&E’s only up by one point

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Wow, the No on 16 campaign might just pull off a miracle. PG&E’s lead is cut to 50.3 to 49.7 as more results come in from Los Angeles, where a once-powerful lead is dwindling. If this trend keeps up — and I don’t know if it will — PG&E is going to lose. Amazing.

From the Kamala Harris party

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City Attorney Dennis Herrera, and Board President David Chiu, Criminal Justice Podcaster David Onek and other local luminaries floated around the Delancy Street Foundation where, oddly, the booze was free flowing, allegedly thanks to the largesse of Vanessa Getty.


The walls here are adorned with photos of Delancy Street Foundation founder Mimi Silbert, including an unusually unflattering photo of San Francisco’s mayor Gavin Newsom (with his name mispelled to include a final e). Among the crowd of supporters was Lateefah Simon, who works for the Lawyers Comittee for Civil Rights. She told me she was supporting Kamala Harris for AG based on her experience working for her for four years.


“I’ve never had a more difficult boss,” Simon said. “We would all shake before meetings because she demanded such a level of detail and excellence.


As of this time, Harriss has not put in an appearance, although she is rumored to be lurking in a back room in a building.

At the Newsom party

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Gavin Newsom stopped short of declaring victory until the numbers are final, but said he was excited to be a part of a crucial political year in California. “We’re very proud to be in a position to be the Democratic nominee and to work with the other Democratic nominees.” He lavished praise on Jerry Brown, telling stories about his father’s long relationship with the former governor and expressing his admiration. “I couldn’t be more proud to quasi-be on a ticket with Jerry Brown,” he said, adding, “We are proud he has decided to do this, and we’re all the beneficiaries of his commitment.”

He also praised his opponent, Janice Hahn, and said she was a worthy adversary in a mutually respectful campaign. “We ran a very positive campaign, we stayed focused on the issues and focused on tomorrow.”

 He acknowledged that it will be a tough race in the fall (“we’re running against Meg Whitman’s check book”), and is already trying to paint Abel Maldonado as a Sacramento insider. “I’ll be running against a guy who’s been up in Sacramento for 12 years, a 12 years when we’ve seen college tuitions double.”

DCCC: The progressives are holding their majority

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It came down to the wire, but the progressives appear to have held their majority on the DCCC. I can now count 18 progressives in the money, and while it’s still close, unless the election-day absentees are very different from the election-day votes, I think that lead will hold. And that was the result of a remarkable coalition effort. “It’s a beautiful thing when we all pull together, Gabriel Haaland just told me. “It was amazing what went into the last few days. We walked 120 precincts.”


 

More SF results: Colfax is in, Nava leading, DCCC very, very close

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Linda Colfax is going to win the open judicial seat without a runoff. She’s got 52 percent of the vote, and her lead is growing. Michael Nava and Richard ulmer appear headed for a fall runoff. Right now, the progressives have 17 votes on the DCCC, one short of what they need for a majority. Veronese is out, Haaland is in …. and with 70 percent of the votes counted, this may come down to election-day absentees.

The impact of Prop. 14

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Proposition 14 was the sleeper on the ballot; it’s only there because Abel Maldonado refused to vote for a state budget unless both parties agreed to put it before the voters. And it’s winning. The impact of open primaries could be dramatic; it could hurt progressive candidates, pretty much wipe out third parties and potentially change the shape of the state Legislature. Maldonado likes it because it shifts the balance of power toward “centrists” — which actually means people who can raise a lot of campaign money. It’s going to take a while to sort out the impacts of Prop. 14, but it doesn’t bode well.

Nail biters

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Prop. 16 is going to be close. It’s wavering back and forth, with PG&E losing votes as Central Valley precincts report, but picking up votes in (gasp) L.A. That one’s going to go on a while. So will the San Francisco DCCC race — right now, some progressive incumbents, like Robert Gabriel Haaland, are missing the cut — but only very narrowly. Haaland has 5925 votes, and Joe Alioto Veronese has 5980. Eric Quezada, another progressive, has 5462. On such tiny margins does the future of the San Francisco Democratic Party hang.


An interesting note: If this race is a preview of the fall, District 8 is going to be very close. Scott Wiener and Rafael Mandelman, both incumbents, are going to get re-elected, and then run against each other for supervisor. Wiener has 7875 votes; Mandelman has 7216.

From the progressive DCCC party

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Alex Emslie gives this report from the progressive DCCC victory party:


As of 9 p.m., close to 100 people have gathered at the Project 1 art gallery and DJ lounge to celebrate the progressive slate for Democratic County Central Committee.


At this point, candidates are beginning to trickle into the dimly lit gallery, chatting with the crowd over the quiet din from a DJ booth in the back.


“It’s a beautiful array of San Francisco progressives,” Assembly District 13 candidate Alix Rosenthal said of the partygoers. She said the most important part of her platform is getting more women elected locally. She also wants to preserve the nightlife culture in San Francisco.


“I’m getting distracted because I can’t believe I’m winning,” Rosenthal added after checking election results behind the DJ booth.


David Cutler, a San Francisco resident since 1987, stood by the bar waiting for more candidates to arrive. “It’s nice to have this much accessibility to our local politicians,” he said.


The real question on everyone’s mind, though, is how the election will turn out; the progressives currently control the commitee, but only narrowly. “Right now, we have about 16 or 17 votes, and we need 18,” Sup. John Avalos said. “I think we’re going to catch a couple more.”

The GOP’s Wall Street ticket

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Steven T. Jones reports that the folks at the Newsom victory party aren’t just celebrating Gavin’s overwhelming win; they’re looking forward to the fall. The Republicans have nominated two big-business executives for governor and senate — and that’s not a good political position to be in these days. “I think it’s stunningly politically tone deaf to nominate two Wall Street CEOs at the top of the ticket,” noted Dan Newman, a Newsom communications advisor.

OMG Jerry Brown …

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From Calitics:


Jerry Brown speaking now in LA. LA County Sheriff Lee Baca introduced him as the man who “implemented Prop 13.” Oh great. This campaign season is gonna suck. Back to the 1970s for Jerry Brown: we need “discipline, humility, live within our means.” Brown sounds like he’s going to run as the apostle of austerity.

A bit of good news from the East Bay

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It appears at this point as if Victoria Kolakowski, who is leading with 46 percent of the vote, may become the first transgender trial-court judge in the United States.

Some scary stuff

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The results on Prop. 14 — the open primaries law — are a bit alarming. This thing’s passing with 60 percent of the vote — and winning every single county that’s reported so far. And Prop. 15, the election-reform law, is losing big. I know that open primaries sound appealing (as long as you don’t stop to think about it), but why would people vote against a law that creates public financing for just one statewide office, at no cost to the taxpayers? I’m also a little disturbed that Prop. 16 is doing so well in Los Angeles. That’s where all of the Yes votes seem to be coming from. Cause for serious concern.

Kamala has won. So has Dave Jones

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Kamala Harris is far ahead in the AG. primary, and we can call that one for her at this point. Chris Kelly spent a lot of money and got nowhere. Dave Jones is going to win the Dem insurance commish nod. The Supt. of Public Instruction is more interesting; Larry Acevas, a retired school superintendent who has the support of the L.A. Times but wasn’t much on the political radar in a race involving two high-profile Dems from the state Legislature, is actually in the lead statewide. Tom Torlakson, who has the support of the teachers union, is close behind him – -and Gloria Romero, the fan of school privatization, is way behind.

San Francisco results — the absentees

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The first results are in from San Francisco, and the typically conservative absentee votes include a few surprises. Linda Colfax, a lesbian public defender, is well ahead in the open judicial seat, with 47 percent of the vote. The next closest challenger, Harry Dorfman, has just 33 percent; I think it’s safe to say Linda’s going to win this one, quite possibly without a November runoff. The other judicial race is much closer — the incumbent, Richard Ulmer, has 46 percent and Michael Nava 41 percent. The third major candidate, Dan Dean, has 11 percent — so a majority of the voters are siding with the challengers, and since the absentees are probably the strongest pro-Ulmer votes out there, this one’s heading for a runoff.


PG&E and Mercury insurance are both getting hammered in San Francisco. PG&E is also losing badly in Sacramento. And since vote-rich Los Angeles is a public power city, PG&E’s in trouble.


The DCCC is still way too close to call, and it’s way too early to say who’s going to emerge on top. Stay tuned.

Prop. 17 — a bit futher ahead

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Mercury Insurance, sad to say, is doing a bit better than PG&E; Prop. 17 has a 55-45 lead. But other than Marin, these are all fairly conservative counties reporting. In Marin, both PG&E and Mercury are getting hammered. If that pattern stays true in San Francisco, Los Angeles, San Jose and Sacramento, then these corporate scams may be in trouble.

PG&E has an early lead, but …

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PG&E has an early lead, with just a small fraction of a few counties reporting. Right now the Yes on 16 vote is 52.5 to 47.5, but there are no big cities reporting in yet. And in eight of the ten counties where there are results, the measure is losing. So I would say at this point, PG&E has a lot to worry about.

The news from back East

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One of the first telling primary races is over, and it appears that Blanche Lincoln has narrowly survived a primary challenge in Arkansas. The progressive Dems who fought hard to get rid of a senator who helped kill the public option and might as well be a Republican will be unhappy, but the fact that even with the (tepid) support of the president she only squeaked by with the narrowist of victories sends a signal to other fence-sitting Dems. The bad news: The Republicans will probably pick up this seat in November.

SFBG Radio: Johnny and Tim on June 8 ballot props

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Today, Johnny and Tim talk about the June 8th ballot props, why Republicans ought to vote No on 16 — and the monopoly power of PG&E and Comcast. You can listen after the jump.

sfbgradio6/7/2010 by sfbgradio

Three words: Vote June 8

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The problem with the June 8th ballot is that the Democrats aren’t fighting with each other.


I mean, it’s great that Jerry Brown and Barbara Boxer will emerge from the primary season unscathed, flush with money and ready to go after opponents who have been battered and beaten mercilessly in their own primaries. It’s great that Steve Poizner drove down Meg Whitman’s positives and made her look so bad that she’s now behind Jerry Brown (who isn’t even campaigning yet) in the polls. It’s great that Carly Fiorina was forced so far to the right that she had to endorse allowing people on the no-fly list to buy handguns. The expensive and ugly GOP primary battles may have saved Boxer’s job and put Brown in the governor’s office.


But around the state, Democrats don’t have as much reason to vote. Fiorina, Poizner, Whitman — they’re all spending millions to bring Republicans to the polls. There’s no similar statewide GOTV operation on the Democratic side. So the electorate could wind up skewing considerably to the right — and that’s going to hurt us on the ballot propositions.


Johnny Angel and I were talking on our radio show today about the fact that Republicans — those who aren’t complete idiots — ought to oppose Prop. 16 and Prop. 17. Those aren’t partisan measures; they’re just corporate scams. And nobody from any political party likes Pacific Gas and Electric Co. these days.


But the reality is, PG&E has aimed its Prop. 16 campaign directly at the heart of the more conservative electorate, with its anti-government message. And Mercury insurance has aimed its campaign at the better-off consumers who aren’t likely to drop their car insurance any time soon. I don’t see Prop. 16 winning big in any constituency — but it will do better among Republicans.


So Democrats have to get to the polls — and get their friends to the polls, and their families to the polls, and their neighbors to the polls, and a few dead people, too, if they can find them (just kidding, Arthur Evans, lighten up).


And in San Francisco, where there are no races for mayor or supervisor, it’s easy to want to sit this one out — but that would be a major mistake. The election for Democratic County Central Commitee alone is worth a trip to the polling place, since the makeup of that body will have a significant impact on the fall supervisorial races.


So you have to vote, folks. Here’s our endorsements.


 

If crime in San Francisco was shown as peaks and valleys

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…it would look like this.

And what a revealing landscape the city suddenly becomes.

If you scroll down through the many crime visualization images that are posted at doug mccune’s blog, you’ll find a visual for prostitution, along with the following comments:

“My favorite map is the one for prostitution (maybe “favorite” is the wrong choice of words there). Nearly all the arrests for prostitution in San Francisco occur along what I’m calling the “Mission Mountain Ridge”, which runs up Mission St between 24th and 16th. I love the way the mountain range casts a shadow over much of the city. There’s also a second peak in the Tenderloin (which I’m dubbing Mt. Loin).”

 

 

Ethics boss finally ousts Luby, a crusading public advocate

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Oliver Luby has long been the most public-spirited employee of the San Francisco Ethics Commission, the one person in that office who repeatedly exposed powerful violators of campaign finance rules and blew the whistle on schemes to make the system less transparent and effective, drawing the ire of Director John St. Croix and Deputy Director Mabel Ng in the process.

St. Croix repeatedly tied to silence and punish Luby, who fell back on civil service and whistle-blower protections to save his job as a fines collection officer and continue doing it properly. But it appears St. Croix has finally succeeded in ousting Luby, who this week was notified that his last day will be June 11.

During budget season last year, at a time when St. Croix was trying to punish Luby for sounding the alarm about a new campaign finance database would effectively delete important data (something St. Croix defended but the vendor, NetFile, later corrected), St. Croix quietly removed a special condition for Luby’s job that required at least 12 months campaign finance experience.

So when Mayor Gavin Newsom ordered more than 400 layoffs of city employees to balance the budget, Luby’s job was just another 1840 level position, subjected to being taken by someone from another department with more seniority, which is what happened when Ernestine Braxton, a junior management assistant with the Department of Public Works, took the job.

When I asked St. Croix about why he removed the special condition from Luby’s job and whether it was retaliation for his battles with Luby, St. Croix told me, “You want me to talk about a personnel matter and I’m not going to talk about it.”

Yet Luby says its clear the St. Croix targeted him for removal. “Once that condition was removed, it was only a matter of time before I was bumped by someone in the same civil service job class but with greater seniority,” Luby wrote in a message to supporters, adding that he’s still figuring out what his options are.

Luby first got on the wrong side of Ethics Commission management back in early 2004 when he and fellow employee Kevin DeLiban accidentally were sent a memo from the office of campaign attorney Jim Sutton, treasurer for the Newsom for Mayor campaign, detailing a scheme to illegally pay off campaign debts with money laundered through Newsom’s inauguration committee.

Ng and then-director Ginny Vida ordered them to destroy the document, but they saved a copy and exposed the scheme, which Sutton then backed away from implementing (the pair was publicly honored for their efforts). But Luby continued to have professional differences with Vida’s replacement, St. Croix, often over the favorable treatment given the clients of Sutton, who runs the most expensive and deceptive campaigns on behalf of powerful downtown corporations and organizations (and whose hiding of a late PG&E contribution to defeat a 2002 public power measure resulted in a largest fine Ethics ever ordered).

For example, in 2007, Luby wrote a memo showing how enforcement actions by Ethics disproportionately targeted small campaigns (often by progressive candidates) and ignored serious violations by the most powerful interests in the city (which, if pursued, would have resulted in big fines, money the city desperately needs). We at the Guardian obtained the memo and wrote a story, causing St. Croix to order Luby to not longer write memos recommending way to improve operations at Ethics. And in November 2008, Luby wrote an op-ed in the Chronicle showing how St. Croix had ignored and covered up campaign finance law violations at City College of San Francisco that later led to the criminal indictment of former Chancellor Phil Day (whose trial is expected to begin later this year).

With each of these battles, Luby was threatened by St. Croix and had to seek support from his union, SEIU Local 1021, and the protection of civil service and whistleblower laws. But now, it appears that San Franciscans are losing the only person in the Ethics Commission that could be trusted to act in the interests of the city and the public.