Bruce Brugmann

Reviving Reagan: A burst of Durst

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B3 campaign note: Durst is right: there are no real Republican candidates and there is no president for them to fall back on except Reagan. I think the Republicans made a terrible mistake when they left Cheney on the ticket, probably the worst vice president since Aaron Burr, and the kind of bull who carries his own china closet around with him. They should have kicked him off the ticket four years ago and put in the most electable candidate they could find to run as vice president and emerging presidential candidate. Those mistakes are fatal in politics. Thank God the Republicans are making them, one after another.

By the way, I miss Will on the old Will and Willie show on the Air America/Quake radio via Clear Channel. He did a “burst of Durst” on every show, which was always a clever and biting commentary on the day’s news.
Quite a performance. I can almost hear him doing his “burst” as I read his latest column. Willie was of course ex-Mayor Willie Brown. Will and Willie were an excellent show, getting better all the time, and giving San Francisco
a marvelous showcase on Air America radio. Now there are only shows centered from God knows where.
However, John Scott is holding down the 4 to 6 p.m. slot with a creditable left-leaning news program on 960 the Quake. B3

Ammiano: Bernie Ward for the Mayor

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Hi, this is Bernie Ward for the mayor. I understand he’s hiring.

(From the answering machine of Sup. Tom Ammiano on Friday, Jan. 18, 2008.) B3

Ammiano: hi, you’ve reached 9ll

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Hi, you’ve reached 9ll. If you’re being attacked by a tiger, please press pounce. Uh. I mean pound.

(From the answering machine of Sup. Tom Ammiano on Thursday, Jan. l7, 2008.) B3

Ammiano: it’s a Big Mac World!

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Hi. This is George W. Bush and I’ll have a Big Mac and fries. What? Oh. This is Mac World? In that case,
I’ll have an Apple too.

(From the answering machine of Sup. Tom Ammiano on Jan. 15, 2008.) B3

Today’s Ammianoliner

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Obama surfs the Maverick. Clinton says “gnarly, dude, but I ain’t Gidget.” B3

The press: Humbled in New Hampshire

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B3 comment:

As I said in my post-election blog, I liked the fact that it was the voters, not the pundits nor the pollsters, who decided the New Hampshire primary and surprised everyone.

I also liked this commentary below by Fairness & Accuracy in Reporting, a national media watchdog group, who asked the Washington Post’s David Broder and NBC’s Tim Russert to explain their embarrassingly wrong predictions, rebuked NBC’s Chris Matthews for horserace coverage, and quoted NBC’s Tom Brokaw offering some good reporting advice, and then giving its own good advice.

FAIR to the campaign reporters: “Reporters should strive for coverage no matter what the results are.”

Brokaw: “Wait for the voters to make their judgment…”

B3 adds: “Reporters should cover the issues and the policy differences between the candidates. And work to keep the war and Bush on the front burner at all times.”

fair.gif

http://www.fair.org/index.php?page=3242

Media Advisory

Humbled in New Hampshire?
Press Needs to Refocus Campaign Coverage

1/11/08

Leading up to the New Hampshire primary, the storyline on the Democratic side was the disastrous state of the Clinton campaign. Her loss was a given; it seemed the only considerations were the margin of defeat and whether or not she would even continue running at all. The day of the primary, the Washington Post reported (1/8/08) that a second loss to Obama “would leave the New York senator’s candidacy gasping for breath,” and declared that Clinton’s vow to stay in the race

may be more wish than reality. By Wednesday, it may be too late. By then, Obama’s campaign may have inflicted enough damage on the woman-who-was-once-inevitable that no amount of readjusting, recalibrating and rearranging will give her the wherewithal to overcome two big losses in the first contests of the 2008 nomination battle.

Clinton, of course, won the primary–surprising the pundits and contradicting the polls that journalists unwisely use to set the tone of so much of their coverage. In the aftermath, the media were left asking what went “wrong” with the numbers. As the front page of USA Today declared (1/10/08), “For pollsters, N.H. ‘unprecedented.'” But this isn’t so; the actual USA Today story included a state pollster who noted that pre-election polls in 2000 vastly underestimated John McCain’s victory over George W. Bush. Right before the primary, the New York Times reported (1/30/00) that “a series of polls showed the two Republican front-runners in a dead heat.” Given that McCain won by 19 points, journalists and pollsters puzzling over Clinton’s showing are ignoring very recent history.

As the media mea culpas start to pile up, it’s worth considering the unspoken implication–that if the vote had gone the way the polls were predicting, then the press would have been doing a fine job of covering an election. But journalists should not be gamblers, betting that they will be vindicated by voters’ choices that are inherently unpredictable. Reporters should strive for coverage that holds up no matter what the results are.

Expectations and reality
Though they often prefer to think of themselves as mere observers of an election, the media clearly set the tone for much of the campaign, laying out expectations for various candidates and making editorial decisions about who the most “viable” contenders will be–usually long before most actual voters have been given the chance to weigh in.

But beating the expectations doesn’t necessarily guarantee good coverage. Democratic contender John Edwards defied press predictions by finishing second in Iowa, ahead of supposed front-runner Hillary Clinton. But much of the media conversation after the votes were tallied focused on the disappointing Edwards showing. By contrast, Republican John McCain had a great night in Iowa, according to many in the press– despite the fact that he finished fourth, behind Fred Thompson. The obvious difference is not how well the candidates did but how well they are liked by the press corps.

Some in the media point out that the Republican race in New Hampshire went as predicted, so it wasn’t all bad news for the press. But the campaign coverage still included its share of bizarrely confident predictions. NBC’s Tim Russert (1/4/08) declared that “only McCain or Romney can come out of New Hampshire to fight for another day in South Carolina, only one. One stays behind. It is make or break for McCain or Romney in New Hampshire.” Given that both candidates are, by all appearances, continuing to campaign, will Russert explain where his prediction came from? Or as the Washington Post’s David Broder wrote before the New Hampshire vote (1/4/08), “A second Romney loss would effectively end the former Massachusetts governor’s candidacy.”

Horse race
There’s a long trend of media hostility towards so-called “second-tier” candidates (Extra!, 9/10/03). As a recent Wall Street Journal news story put it (1/10/08), “In both parties, second-tier candidates continue to press on and siphon off votes.” But Broder and Russert were not just saying that non-frontrunners have a duty to get out of the way–they were asserting that a loss in New Hampshire would mean that Romney would no longer be a front-runner. This illustrates an important point about mainstream election coverage: Not only do journalists and pundits devote far too much attention to covering the horse race aspect of campaigns, but when they cover the horse race they generally do a poor job of it.

Primary elections and caucuses determine how a state party’s delegates are assigned; if a candidate wins enough delegates, they will almost certainly be their party’s nominee. So a reasonably helpful media would focus on this delegate count. But the mathematics of this process are obscured by the media’s obsession with “wins” and “losses” in highly visible contests.

Consider Barack Obama’s apparently monumental victory in the Iowa caucuses. The distribution of delegates, though, was hardly so dramatic: Obama won 16, Clinton 15 and Edwards 14. In a race to secure a little over 2,000 delegates, the results are of little consequence. In New Hampshire, Clinton’s dramatic comeback netted her nine delegates–the same number awarded to Obama. In the total delegate count tallied on CNN’s website–which counts a large number of party insiders awarded as “superdelegates”–Clinton has more than double the number of delegates as Obama, and Edwards is about 25 delegates behind Obama.

On the Republican side, McCain’s victory in New Hampshire gained him seven delegates; to put that in context, Romney’s second-place finish in Iowa was worth 12 delegates. And Romney’s win in the Wyoming primary–which received almost no media coverage at all–secured him eight delegates. His total delegate count still puts him ahead of all or most his competitors (depending on whether you believe CNN or ABC), though the media coverage would lead you to conclude otherwise.

Given that the process of nominating a presidential candidate is a matter of winning delegates, why does the press assign so much significance to the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries? The implicit assumption is that these small states have a big role in determining the eventual party nominees, but they actually have a quite mixed record in projecting overall winners in competitive races. (Gary Hart, Paul Tsongas and Pat Buchanan were all New Hampshire winners.) Neither does losing early primaries necessarily doom a candidacy–in 1992, Bill Clinton lost the first five contests. The media’s decision to place such importance on the small number of delegates in the first two states has little to do with any actual reasonable political determination.

What do we cover now?
Former NBC anchor Tom Brokaw offered some helpful commentary during the coverage of the New Hampshire primaries, suggesting to MSNBC anchor Chris Matthews that reporters put less emphasis on trying to predict outcomes and spend more time covering actual policy:

BROKAW: You know what I think we’re going to have to do?

MATTHEWS: Yes sir?

BROKAW: Wait for the voters to make their judgment.

MATTHEWS: Well, what do we do then in the days before the ballot? We must stay home, I guess.

BROKAW: No, no we don’t stay home. There are reasons to analyze what they’re saying. We know from how the people voted today, what moved them to vote. You can take a look at that. There are a lot of issues that have not been fully explored during all this.

Matthews’ response is illuminating. Does a political junkie who hosts two national television programs really not have any idea about how to cover politics other than talking about strategy, fundraising and polls? Do campaign journalists really have so little interest in the actual policy positions of the candidates?

As it stands now, the races for the major party nominations are remarkably close. The most valuable service journalists could provide now would be to illustrate the differences between the candidates on the major issues of importance to voters. The press corps seems chastened by their misreading of the New Hampshire electorate, and many are vowing to be more cautious in their assumptions. Will they follow through on their own advice? And will voters ever get campaign reporting that helps them make informed choices about the direction of their democracy?

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Peter Hart on 2008 primaries, Kali Akuno on New Orleans public housing (1/11/08-1/17/08)

Feel free to respond to FAIR ( fair@fair.org ). We can’t reply to everything, but we will look at each message. We especially appreciate documented examples of media bias or censorship. And please send copies of your correspondence with media outlets, including any responses, to fair@fair.org.

Ammiano on Hillary’s obituary

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Hillary dies. Relax Obama, it’s Edmund. How’s that for change?

(From the answering machine of Sup. Tom Ammiano on Jan. ll, 2008.)

Personal note to Tom: Watch that enunciation. You are slipping back into your Bernal Heights brogue. Just kidding of course. B3

Ammiano: Jew loses game show

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Ed Jew appears on Don’t Forget the Lyrics: Return to sender, address unknown.

(From the answering machine of Sup. Tom Ammiano on Jan. l0, 2007.) B3

New Hampshire: The ‘Bradley Effect?’

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B3 note: “Can Hillary Cry Her Way Back to the White House?” was the headline over today’s New York Times column by Maureen Dowd. Dowd wrote that “the Obama campaign calculated that they had the women’s vote over the weekend but watched it slip away…in the end, she had to fend off calamity by playing the female victim, both of Obama and of the press. Hillary has barely talked to the press throughout her race, yet the Cllintons this week whined mightily that the press prefers Obama.”

I liked the line by an interviewee on Quake radio who mentioned an Ellen Goodman column in the Boston Globe earlier on. Goodman argued that, if the men piled on Hillary, the women would vote for her. But I mainly liked the fact that the voters of New Hampshire, not the pollsters and the pundits, decided the outcome and surprised everyone. That is good news.

Then there is “The Bradley Effect,” which is a reason why many thought Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley lost a gubernatorial election in l982 after having a substantial lead in both the pre-election and exit polls. Will Durst
wonders if “The Bradley Effect” kicked in in New Hampshire and if it won’t be a major factor in the campaign.

SHADOWS TRUMP HOPE.

By Will Durst

Listen my friends and you will hear a tale of a
fateful night. It’s a tale no other dare speak of. Not
a matter of political correctness. It is shame. Of
which I have little. If any. Okay. None. So here goes.
What follows is the real and true story of how Hillary
Clinton overcame a double digit same day deficit and
won the New Hampshire Primary. A tale of a race and of
race.

We all know what happened, but like the knickers of a
Guatemalan nanny bent over a laundry basket in the
room just off the kitchen, we pretend not to notice.
Tom Brokaw knows. John King knows. Okay, maybe Laura
Ingraham doesn’t know, but how is that different?
Hillary knows. Barack not only knows, he feels it in
his bones like a creeping worm of osteoporosis every
day of his life but he’ll never say a word.

It was not a polling glitch. It was not co- opting the
mantra of “change.” It was not Hillary’s vulnerability
in Saturday’s debate or her moist eyes in that
Portsmouth coffee shop. It was not Bill turning into a
60 foot George Bailey Transformer rampaging through
Bedford Falls. It was a little bit of the teeniest
kind of invisible fear. A form of prejudice detritus
known as “the Bradley Effect.”

In 1982, Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, an African-
American, was 10 points ahead in the polls the day
before his California Gubernatorial election against
George Deukmejian. 10 points ahead. Day before the
election. He lost. Sound familiar? Ding. Ding. Ding.
Give that man a kewpie doll.

To add insult to injury, Bradley led in the EXIT
polls. Which means people not only lied about how they
were going to vote, they lied about how they did vote.
Proof positive that something crazy happens inside the
heads of white people when they get behind that
polling curtain. But after two terms of George Bush,
that ain’t new news.

Why didn’t the “Bradley Effect” rear its ugly head in
Iowa? Simple. We’re not talking about racism, we’re
talking about nervousness. A fear that attacks your
marrow in the dark. In Iowa, everyone watches you
vote. No curtain to hide behind in a caucus. You bunch
in a corner in full sight of all your neighbors under
a bright fluorescent light. In New Hampshire, it’s
just you and your demons. Your inner New England
demons. And hope tends to dissipate in those lonely
enclosures. No matter how warm the January night, it
gets dark at five up there. Northwoods dark, where
shadows trump hope.

The difference was women over 40. Which, forgive me,
but in both New Hampshire and Iowa means white women.
In the Hawkeye State, they went with the black guy in
the wide open. In the Granite State, behind the
curtain, they chose the white woman. I know. I know. I
know. Sacrilege! Implying discrimination exists in
America today. Blaspheme! Accusing DEMOCRATS of
possible prejudice. Heresy! But its not bigotry so
much as it is dread. Obloquy! “What?” Never mind.
Suffice to say that in the last six years, we’ve been
taught to fear. Bang! Salivate.

One can only hope the Clinton campaign understands
this and doesn’t convince themselves it was their
wacky emotional leakage weekend strategy that turned
the tide, because that would mean 10 months of Bill
shrieking and Hillary keening, and nobody wants that.
The only thing worse would be to go on pretending this
Effect does not exist, because future opponents are
already drawing up plans to ramp it up.

Comic, actor, writer, Will Durst had to look up
“obloquy.” It means the same kind of stuff the other
words do.

will durst
wing commander
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san francisco 94109
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Media to Voters: It’s Over

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By Bruce B. Brugmann

The media organization called FAIR (Fairness & Accuracy In Reporting) makes a timely point on the day of the New Hampshire primary: the media is declaring the presidential race is all but over, preempting some 98 per cent of the voters who will have no say in who becomes the two presidential nominees.

FAIR notes that the Washington Post’s David Broder, the dean of political reporters, wrote on Jan. 4 that “New Hampshire is poised to close down the race for the Democratic presidential nomination.”

Broder, as I like to recall, popped up on a Sunday morning news show shortly after the Iraq invasion and said, almost proudly, it looks as if the President has won himself a war.

FAIR concludes its piece with the admonition that “history would suggest that, at a very minimum, campaign reporters refrain from handicapping the outcome of the nominating process in early January. After all, it’s voters, not the news media, who are supposed to elect the new president.” There must be a better way. B3

fair.gif

http://www.fair.org/index.php?page=146

Media Advisory

Media to Voters: It’s Over

Pundits rushing to end primaries and preempt voter choices

1/8/08

As the results of the Republican and Democratic primaries in New Hampshire are reported tonight, it’s a good bet that many prominent pundits and journalists will declare the race for the White House all but over–long before 98 percent of voters have had any say in the matter.

The Washington Post’s David Broder wrote on January 4 that “New Hampshire is poised to close down the race for the Democratic presidential nomination.” Newsweek’s Jonathan Alter (1/3/08) likewise declared Obama to be the new inevitable after he won the Iowa caucus:

With his victory tonight, Barack Obama is now the strong favorite to be the Democratic nominee for president. The only one who can stop Obama from making history is Obama…. Unless he makes a terrible mistake in this weekend’s WMUR debate in New Hampshire, Obama will be the strong favorite to win in the Granite State…. Should the Illinois senator win New Hampshire and South Carolina, it will be next to impossible to prevent him from becoming the nominee on February 5, Super Tuesday.

Actually, it’s easy to imagine at least three Democratic candidates still having substantial support on February 5, meaning that Super Tuesday could produce no clear winner. The Republican race has much the same dynamic; though it hasn’t happened in decades, one or both of the major parties could go into their conventions not knowing who their nominee is.

By any reasonable standard, then, the race for either major party’s presidential nomination is far from settled. But Broder nonetheless argued that former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney’s campaign was virtually finished: “A second Romney loss would effectively end the former Massachusetts governor’s candidacy.”

NBC anchor Tim Russert sounded a similar alarm (1/4/08): “Bottom line, Brian, only McCain or Romney can come out of New Hampshire to fight for another day in South Carolina, only one. One stays behind. It is make or break for McCain or Romney in New Hampshire.”

Why are the media rushing to end the primary season just as it’s begun? It’s sometimes difficult to follow the logic. Consider a USA Today report from January 7:

The Democratic contest is a two-person race, dominated by Clinton and Obama. That leaves Edwards, a former North Carolina senator who is a close third, and Richardson, New Mexico’s governor who is a distant fourth, waiting for a stumble or a political earthquake to create an opening for them.

How are four candidates participating in a “two-person race”–especially given that one of the lesser candidates–John Edwards–finished ahead of Hillary Clinton? Similarly, the New York Times’ Adam Nagourney (1/5/08) argued that “the results in Iowa…suggested that the Democratic and Republican contests were to a considerable extent two-way races: Mrs. Clinton and Senator Barack Obama of Illinois for the Democrats, and Mr. McCain and Mr. Romney for the Republicans.” How Mike Huckabee coming in first in his race and Edwards coming in second “suggested” that their candidacies should be dismissed, Nagourney didn’t explain.

The press has been more harshly critical of Edwards’ campaign, so it could be the case that many in the media would be happy to see him out of the picture. (See Action Alert, 12/21/07.) Indeed, much of the conventional wisdom after Edwards’ second-place finish in Iowa suggested that his campaign for the White House was all but over. As New York Times columnist David Brooks (New York Times, 1/4/08) boldly pronounced, “Edwards’s political career is probably over.” David Gergen agreed (CNN, 1/3/08): “John Edwards I think has nowhere to go now…even with a second-place win, because he has no money.”

In an interview with Edwards, MSNBC host Keith Olbermann (1/4/08) expressed bewilderment:

I didn’t understand the conventional wisdom last night…. If you finish second in Iowa with more support from the previous national front-runner, who dropped from first to third, many of the pundits, many of the so-called experts, are describing you as being in trouble, rather than Senator Clinton. Do you know why that is?

It’d be nice if more in the media asked such questions about what passes for conventional wisdom in their election coverage. Indeed, some articles have noted that winning early primaries isn’t necessary to winning the nomination; in 1992, Bill Clinton lost the first five contests, but somehow managed to win the White House nonetheless. This very recent history would suggest that, at a very minimum, campaign reporters refrain from handicapping the outcome of the nominating process in early January. After all, it’s voters, not the news media, who are supposed to elect the next president.

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by Noam Chomsky

Open Media Series: City Lights Books, 232 pages

Interventions collects Chomsky’s essays and writings for the New York Times Syndicate, works published all around the globe, but rarely in major U.S. media, and certainly not in the New York Times. Chomsky, America’s foremost political intellectual and dissident, tackles the Bush administration, the Iraq War and more. Foreword written by FAIR’s Peter Hart.

Best of CounterSpin, 2007 (1/4/08-1/10/08)

Feel free to respond to FAIR ( fair@fair.org ). We can’t reply to everything, but we will look at each message. We especially appreciate documented examples of media bias or censorship. And please send copies of your correspondence with media outlets, including any responses, to fair@fair.org.

George McGovern: Impeach Bush & Cheney!

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B3 note: Good for George McGovern. Good for the Washington Post for running this important timely commentary
in its Sunday edition. Question: how many other papers will run it?

The McGovern piece reminds me of a major political point: that a big reason the Pelosi Democrats in
Washington have so cravenly caved in to the Bush initiatives, on the war and much else, is because Pelosi wrongheadly pulled the impeachment issue off the table before the last election. This meant, among other things, that the Democrats at the first bugle lost their most important bit of muscle and leverage. The result has been disastrous and the war is now surging.

It’s good that Cindy Sheehan is running against Pelosi and will force these issues into the public arena. Maybe, just maybe, Pelosi will be forced to debate Sheehan and will be forced in the November election to conduct a real campaign for the first time in her home territory to keep her Speaker of the House post.

Personal note about McGovern: he comes from South Dakota, a state so conservative that it has outlawed abortions. Its eastern border is l7 miles or so from my northwestern Iowa hometown of Rock Rapids. I have followed him closely through the years. I still marvel that a liberal of his force and eloquence could represent South Dakota for so many years in Congress. Imagine if he were the Speaker of the House.

Why I Believe Bush Must Go

By George McGovern

The Washington Post
Sunday 06 January 2008

Nixon was bad. These guys are worse.

As we enter the eighth year of the Bush-Cheney administration, I have
belatedly and painfully concluded that the only honorable course for me is
to urge the impeachment of the president and the vice president.

After the 1972 presidential election, I stood clear of calls to impeach
President Richard M. Nixon for his misconduct during the campaign.

I thought that my joining the impeachment effort would be seen as an
expression of personal vengeance toward the president who had defeated me.

Today I have made a different choice.

Of course, there seems to be little bipartisan support for impeachment.

The political scene is marked by narrow and sometimes superficial
partisanship, especially among Republicans, and a lack of courage and
statesmanship on the part of too many Democratic politicians. So the
chances of a bipartisan impeachment and conviction are not promising.

But what are the facts?

Bush and Cheney are clearly guilty of numerous impeachable offenses.

They have repeatedly violated the Constitution.

They have transgressed national and international law.

They have lied to the American people time after time.

Their conduct and their barbaric policies have reduced our beloved country
to a historic low in the eyes of people around the world.

These are truly “high crimes and misdemeanors,” to use the constitutional
standard.

From the beginning, the Bush-Cheney team’s assumption of power was the
product of questionable elections that probably should have been officially
challenged – perhaps even by a congressional investigation.

In a more fundamental sense, American democracy has been derailed
throughout the Bush-Cheney regime.

The dominant commitment of the administration has been a murderous,
illegal, nonsensical war against Iraq.

That irresponsible venture has killed almost 4,000 Americans, left many
times that number mentally or physically crippled, claimed the lives of an
estimated 600,000 Iraqis (according to a careful October 2006 study from
the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health) and laid waste their
country.

The financial cost to the United States is now $250 million a day and is
expected to exceed a total of $1 trillion, most of which we have borrowed
from the Chinese and others as our national debt has now climbed above $9
trillion – by far the highest in our national history.

All of this has been done without the declaration of war from Congress that
the Constitution clearly requires, in defiance of the U.N. Charter and in
violation of international law.

This reckless disregard for life and property, as well as constitutional
law, has been accompanied by the abuse of prisoners, including systematic
torture, in direct violation of the Geneva Conventions of 1949.

I have not been heavily involved in singing the praises of the Nixon
administration.

But the case for impeaching Bush and Cheney is far stronger than was the
case against Nixon and Vice President Spiro T. Agnew after the 1972 election.

The nation would be much more secure and productive under a Nixon
presidency than with Bush. Indeed, has any administration in our national
history been so damaging as the Bush-Cheney era?

How could a once-admired, great nation fall into such a quagmire of
killing, immorality and lawlessness?

It happened in part because the Bush-Cheney team repeatedly deceived
Congress, the press and the public into believing that Saddam Hussein had
nuclear arms and other horrifying banned weapons that were an “imminent
threat” to the United States.

The administration also led the public to believe that Iraq was involved in
the 9/11 attacks – another blatant falsehood. Many times in recent years, I
have recalled Jefferson’s observation: “Indeed I tremble for my country
when I reflect that God is just.”

The basic strategy of the administration has been to encourage a climate of
fear, letting it exploit the 2001 al-Qaeda attacks not only to justify the
invasion of Iraq but also to excuse such dangerous misbehavior as the
illegal tapping of our telephones by government agents.

The same fear-mongering has led government spokesmen and cooperative
members of the press to imply that we are at war with the entire Arab and
Muslim world – more than a billion people.

Another shocking perversion has been the shipping of prisoners scooped off
the streets of Afghanistan to Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, and other countries
without benefit of our time-tested laws of habeas corpus.

Although the president was advised by the intelligence agencies last August
that Iran had no program to develop nuclear weapons, he continued to lie to
the country and the world.

This is the same strategy of deception that brought us into war in the
Arabian Desert and could lead us into an unjustified invasion of Iran.

I can say with some professional knowledge and experience that if Bush
invades yet another Muslim oil state, it would mark the end of U.S.
influence in the crucial Middle East for decades.

Ironically, while Bush and Cheney made counterterrorism the battle cry of
their administration, their policies – especially the war in Iraq – have
increased the terrorist threat and reduced the security of the United States.

Consider the difference between the policies of the first President Bush
and those of his son.

When the Iraqi army marched into Kuwait in August 1990, President George
H.W. Bush gathered the support of the entire world, including the United
Nations, the European Union and most of the Arab League, to quickly expel
Iraqi forces from Kuwait.

The Saudis and Japanese paid most of the cost.

Instead of getting bogged down in a costly occupation, the administration
established a policy of containing the Baathist regime with international
arms inspectors, no-fly zones and economic sanctions.

Iraq was left as a stable country with little or no capacity to threaten
others.

Today, after five years of clumsy, mistaken policies and U.S. military
occupation, Iraq has become a breeding ground of terrorism and bloody civil
strife.

It is no secret that former president Bush, his secretary of state, James
A. Baker III, and his national security adviser, Gen. Brent Scowcroft, all
opposed the 2003 invasion and occupation of Iraq.

In addition to the shocking breakdown of presidential legal and moral
responsibility, there is the scandalous neglect and mishandling of the
Hurricane Katrina catastrophe.

The veteran CNN commentator Jack Cafferty condenses it to a sentence: “I
have never ever seen anything as badly bungled and poorly handled as this
situation in New Orleans.”

Any impeachment proceeding must include a careful and critical look at the
collapse of presidential leadership in response to perhaps the worst
natural disaster in U.S. history.

Impeachment is unlikely, of course.

But we must still urge Congress to act.

Impeachment, quite simply, is the procedure written into the Constitution
to deal with presidents who violate the Constitution and the laws of the land.

It is also a way to signal to the American people and the world that some
of us feel strongly enough about the present drift of our country to
support the impeachment of the false prophets who have led us astray.

This, I believe, is the rightful course for an American patriot.

As former representative Elizabeth Holtzman, who played a key role in the
Nixon impeachment proceedings, wrote two years ago, “it wasn’t until the
most recent revelations that President Bush directed the wiretapping of
hundreds, possibly thousands, of Americans, in violation of the Foreign
Intelligence Surveillance Act (FISA) – and argued that, as Commander in
Chief, he had the right in the interests of national security to override
our country’s laws – that I felt the same sinking feeling in my stomach as
I did during Watergate…

A President, any President, who maintains that he is above the law – and
repeatedly violates the law – thereby commits high crimes and misdemeanors.”

I believe we have a chance to heal the wounds the nation has suffered in
the opening decade of the 21st century.

This recovery may take a generation and will depend on the election of a
series of rational presidents and Congresses.

At age 85, I won’t be around to witness the completion of the difficult
rebuilding of our sorely damaged country, but I’d like to hold on long
enough to see the healing begin.

There has never been a day in my adult life when I would not have
sacrificed that life to save the United States from genuine danger, such as
the ones we faced when I served as a bomber pilot in World War II.

We must be a great nation because from time to time, we make gigantic
blunders, but so far, we have survived and recovered.

http://www.truthout.org/docs_2006/010608C.shtml

Ammiano: Huckabee’s pile of pancakes

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Huckabee claims foreign policy experience. He’s visited the International House of Pancakes often.

(From the answering machine of Sup. Tom Ammiano on the eve of the New Hampshire primary, Jan. 7. 2008). B3

PG&E cuts off Ammianoliners!

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Our daily phone call to the answering machine of Sup. Tom Ammiano for our daily Ammianoliner could not go through for much of the day.

Yet another PG&E outage had knocked out his phone service. Ever notice how, when the first rain drops start falling, PG&E starts having outages–and there is no way to call in, and nobody to talk to or take complaints, and the mayor moves merrily on doing PG&E’s business. The latest Newsom moves on behalf of PG&E: He is putting PG&E-friendly Ed Harrington, city controller, into the PUC executive director post once held by Susan Leal ,who PG&E fired recently via Newsom because of her eeney weeny baby steps toward public power.

Anyway, we got through about 6:30 p.m. and heard the following Ammianoliner update on Newsom:

Newsom’s pre-nup agreement includes no question time.

Good going, Tom. 2008 will be your best year for hot Ammianoliners. B3

IOWA–IT’s WINNER-TASTIC

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By Will Durst

IOWA- IT’S WINNER- TASTIC.

The great thing about the Iowa Caucuses is even after
its over, nobody knows exactly what happened. Its best
described as musical chairs without the music. And no
chairs. On the Democratic side, people don’t really
vote. They attend, then move off into designated
candidate corners, but if not enough people hang in
your corner, you have to go somewhere else. So the
campaign staff that corners the market on breath mints
and deodorant could hold a huge advantage. Hey,
there’s worse ways to choose a candidate than by
picking the one with the best smelling followers.
People still talk about how great Hubert Humphrey’s
staffers smelled. Like winners.

That’s another great thing about the Iowa Caucuses-
everybody is a winner. The whole damn state is
littered with the detritus of winners. Iowa is winner-
tastic. Obviously, Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee are
winners because… well, they won. And that’s what
winners do: they win. But you’d also have to say that
John Edwards and Mitt Romney are winners too, because
even though they came in second, they called
themselves winners, and as big time national
politicos- you got to assume they know what they’re
talking about. Hillary Clinton is apparently a winner,
because in her speech, after coming in third, she
never gave the slightest impression she hadn’t won, so
maybe she knows something the rest of us don’t, which
is another characteristic trait of winners.

Fred Thompson won because he came in third after
canvassing the state with the energy of a three-
legged tortoise on reds. John McCain won because he
spent no time in Iowa at all and still came in fourth.
Which, in some books, makes him a double winner. Ron
Paul is a big winner coming in a strong fifth, if
there is such a thing, when most experts didn’t even
expect him to be able to find Iowa on a map. Rudy
Giuliani, the Mayor of 9/11, won, because he spent no
money in Iowa, which can now be used to frighten
people in states with more foreigners. Bill Richardson
wasn’t really try to win anyhow, and he didn’t, so
he’s a winner. Joe Biden and Christopher Dodd may be
the biggest winners because they don’t have to do this
anymore. Duncan Hunter is what you call a winner in
reverse, since he polled just 500 votes. Which is only
500 votes more than you or I got, and we weren’t even
running. Which certainly makes us winners.

The pundits win because they got a lot to talk about.
And because of the writers’ strike, people might
actually pay attention. The caucus goers win because
their electoral muscles have been exercised. Young
people are winners for having participated in
unprecedented numbers. Britney Spears wins since
people stopped paying attention to her. Hope wins.
Change wins. Evangelicals win. Chuck Norris wins.
African Americans win. The country wins. Lot of
winners here. Not going to be the case in New
Hampshire next week. Going to be a lot of losers
there. But here in the Hawkeye State, the biggest
winners of all may be the residents of the Great State
of Iowa themselves, not just because everybody has
already left them to themselves, but because as soon
as they did, the temperature rose about 30 degrees.
Comic, actor, writer, Will Durst smells funny.

will durst
wing commander
durstco
“you want the best, so do we”
2107 van ness ave
suite 402
san francisco 94109
877 SATIRIST service
415 441 3669 office
415 298 1874 cell
durst@willdurst.com
willdurst.com

Hurray! The Iowans did it!

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B3 note: The Iowans did it. They sent out last night from their caucuses a clear and unambigous message: they demand change, they anointed the first real black candidate for president as their change agent, they don’t see the Clintons as change agents, they want populism, they are suspicious of big money and attack ads, they don’t want another Bush in the White House, they facilitated the passing of the torch to the next generation, they provided a public laboratory in democracy for the world to see. And it was all a wonderful show. Here is the final summing up from Carolyn Schmidt, our now veteran citizen journalist operating out of of the real grassroots in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, and an Obama caucus in a neighborhood elementary school cafeteria.

By Carolyn Schmidt

Cedar Rapids, Iowa–Some of us Iowans just follow our heart, I guess. We just LIKE Obama and the things he helps us dream about–not very practical, perhaps. Edwards did well too, though. The fact that he slipped past Hillary means big money isn’t everything, and I think the Romney defeat carries that message too. Iowans resent all that extravagant spending. And even many of the Republicans were turned off by Romney’s unrelenting, repetitive attack ads. Hillary was appealing to many, but when it got right down to it, they saw her as part of the same old Washington game-playing.

Edwards’ ads about “looking our children in the eye” and telling them that we sold out their future are very powerful. I trust he’ll continue with those across the country.

I was sorry Biden and Dodd didn’t do better, because they certainly both have impressive international knowledge and experience, but in the caucus system their supporters had to have large enough numbers in a given precinct to be viable. In our precinct, we had a record-setting 239 people crammed into an elementary school cafeferia (compared to 104 in 2006). Candidates had to have 51 voters/supporters to be considered viable. Obama drew 164 of those votes in the end, up from an initial 134 by the addition of Richardson and Biden supporters who switched to Obama when their count came out short of the viable number.

We had more black people there than I knew lived in our precinct and lots of young people–students 18 and 19, and young couples in their early 20s. The younger folks were nearly all enthusiastic Obama supporters. Even though extra long benches had been brought in in anticipation of an extra large turnout, probably 50 people or so spent the full two and a half hours standing or switching places with kind souls who took pity on them.

Iowa: What happened to Adlai Stevenson?

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By Bruce B. Brugmann, writing as a certified Rock Rapids, Iowa, Democrat and liberal

I called Dave Dietz just before the Iowa caucus vote to review a significant event in our political lives in the early l950s in Rock Rapids, Iowa.

The event was a speech in nearby Sioux Falls, South Dakota, by Adlai Stevenson, the former gentleman farmer from Bloomington, Illinois, who was running for president against Dwight Eisenhower. Dave and I had gone through school from kindergarten through high school and were probably about as political as anybody in our high school at that time. And so we jumped at the idea of going to hear Stevenson with my grandfather, C. C. Brugmann, who with my father were two of the only Democrats in our conservative northwestern Iowa town.

Stevenson gave a splendid speech that impressed us both. But it was his opening that we remember so clearly.

Will money win tonight in Iowa?

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B3 note: This is an important and timely “follow the money” report from the Center For Responsive Politics in Washington, D.C. It makes a significant point: that even though there are 2,000 or so journalists covering the campaign in Iowa, and even though there is almost saturation media coverage, nobody can really follow the money.

As the report notes in section 3 below, “If money raised in Iowa is any indicator of popular support, Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton will win their respective caucuses tonight. And in New Hampshire, it’ll be Romney and Barrack Obama. But remember that these figures represent fundraising thruogh Sept. 30 only. The fundraising and spending reports for October-December aren’t due to the Federal Election Commission until after the caucuses on Jan. 3l.” The best you can do to follow the money, as we learned to do from Deep Throat in the movie “All the President’s Men,” is to read this report and follow its advice on how to go further. Alas, that’s not good enough.
Congratulations to the Center for doing the best that can be done under current election reporting law. B3

CENTER FOR RESPONSIVE POLITICS
MONEY-IN-POLITICS NEWS

January 3, 2008
tel: 202-857-0044, fax: 202-857-7809
editor@capitaleye.org
www.OpenSecrets.org
www.CapitalEye.org

WILL MONEY WIN TONIGHT IN IOWA?
Winning the Iowa caucuses takes organization and money, certainly, but the biggest spenders haven’t always won there. Howard Dean, Steve Forbes and Pat Robertson are just a few of the candidates who dumped money into the Hawkeye State with little to show for it. How much have the ’08 candidates spent to campaign in Iowa? Well, it’s hard to know. Using campaign finance reports, the best you can do is look at vendors’ addresses. But the biggest expenses, like for advertising, staff and travel, are often paid out to companies and individuals outside the state. In the first nine months of this campaign, the candidates reported spending more than $13 million with Iowa-based vendors. If the true cost of the Iowa effort were known, a single top-tier campaign might have spent that much alone — or more — in the state. As it is, Barack Obama’s reports detail about $2.6 million in Iowa expenditures from January through September, followed by Mitt Romney with about $2.4 million. By comparison, during the entire ’04 presidential election cycle, including the general election, the field of mostly Democratic candidates reported spending about $8.5 million in Iowa. Leading up to the caucuses that year, the field reported spending just $5.2 million, or 40 percent of this election’s reported spending.

*2008 presidential expenditures

IOWA: Our down to the wire report

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This down to the wire report was filed at 9:58 p.m. on Wednesday by Carolyn Schmidt, our ace citizen journalist in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, an election hot spot.

By Carolyn Schmidt

Cedar Rapids, Iowa–Obama is leading in the Register poll by a slight margin, but Huckabee and Romney are tied. It’s going to be down to the wire. Weather’s supposed to be calm–no more snow–with highs in the 20s, but people shouldn’t have any problems getting to the caucuses. Crowding and parking might be problems, but people will figure it out.

We had two campaign volunteers knock on our door New Years Day in the near-zero cold–supporters for Ron Paul and for Barak Obama. The Obama volunteer was a Coe student back early (classes don’t start for another week). Clinton, Edwards, Obama, Dodd, Romney, McCain, and Richardson all had rallies today in the Cedar Rapids area.

Although many of the candidates have had out-of-state volunteers come in for this final week or two, Hillary’s campaign seems to have amassed the largest number. According to yesterday’s Register, an army of Clinton volunteers–many of whom have flown in from Washington–logged 10,000 house calls and 8,500 phone conversations on Saturday alone.

The last B3 blog of 2007

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Leaving the Guardian building about 4 p.m. and heading out for an early dinner at Pompei’s Grotto in the heart of Fisherman’s Wharf.

This is the comfortable place where Jean and I have started out our New Year’s Eves for more than 20 years. A gem with San Francisco soul. Red checkered table cloths. Candles on each table. Splendid martinis. Oysters and crab served with a flourish. A warm glow all round. The kind of restaurant you can tell has been in the family for a long long time.

This year’s New Year’s resolution: no resolutions. See you next year. B3

Iowa: young and old are caucusing with the stars

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B3: Here is the Christmas Eve report from Carolyn Schmidt, our citizen journalist in Cedar Falls, Iowa. She will be reporting regularly up through and after the Thursday election. The key question remains: Will Iowans pick the president this time around?

By Carolyn Schmidt

Cedar Rapids, Iowa–The papers are so full of good stuff, I’ll give you some choices. It’s way more than you probably want to know.

Candidates are bringing in special guests to campaign with them these last few days. “West Wing” star Richard Schiff has been stumping with Joe Biden since Friday, and Martin Sheen, from the same show, is appearing with Bill Richardson. Hillary had the governor of Ohio with her for a few days.

Although his attack ads against Huckabee and McCain are still running on television, Romney has let up on his criticism of the other GOP candidates in person. Reminiscent of Howard Dean, for years ago, he’s saying, “I’m going to fight in Missouri, and Michigan, and South Carolina, and Florida, and California. I’m going to be all around the country making sure that if I get this nomination I’m not just a one-hit wonder.” Huckabee, on the other hand, is now hitting back at Romney, saying Romney is dishonest in his depiction of Huckabee and his policies. “If you get a job by being dishonest…how can you be trusted once you’re in that job?” Huckabee asks. (His audiences evidently haven’t reminded him that it’s been done before:)

Ammiano sums up San Francisco, 2007

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San Francisco 2007:

Ed Jew. The zoo. The mayor.

Liars and tigers and affairs. Oh, my.

Liars and tigers and affairs. Oh, my

(From the answering machine of Sup. Tom Ammiano on Dec. 3l, 2007).

Personal note to Tom: Keep up the Ammianoliners. And go back and collect them and think about publishing them in 2008. B3

Iowa: who is “reasonable” back there?

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B3 note: I asked Carolyn Schmidt, our ace citizen journalist in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, to check out the column of Peggy Noonan, the former Republican speech writer, in the weekend edition of the Wall Street Journal.
I enjoy Noonan, a rock-ribbed Republican, but an intelligent and witty one, who is covering the race from afar.
She is looking for a “reasonable” candidate, finds Joe Biden and Tom Dodd “reasonable,” finds John Edwards”unreasonable,” finds Obama is not “on fire,” and doesn’t like Hillary Clinton much at all on much of anything. Here is Carolyn’s response, filed Sunday, Dec. 30, from the heart of the Iowa campaign. Much more to come, stay tuned.

By Carolyn Schmidt

Cedar Rapids, Iowa–I checked out Peggy Noonan’s column. I think she’s picking the candidates the Republicans would like to compete with. Of course I disagree with her choice of Romney as “reasonable” and Hillary as “unreasonable” and having a “command and control” mentality. To me, Romney comes across a controller and an opportunist, who will say what he thinks voters will go for but will do as he pleases in the White House. Hillary, as a U.S. Senator and as a former first lady, has had considerably more exposure to foreign policy issues than Romney, as a former state governor and businessman. It’s clear that Noonan just doesn’t like Hillary personally, in fact I think Hillary is the candidate the Republicans fear most as an opponent in this race. Maybe that’s as good a reason as any to nominate her.

And Noonan’s comment about Obama not being “on fire” is of course dead wrong–though I agree that he’s not likely to go for the theatrics she’s afraid of. At least in person, Obama is the most energized of the bunch. That’s why he’s so appealing to young people as well as to us older folks. She seems to like much about Obama in spite of her remarks about his age and experience. His good judgment, intelligence, skills as a speaker, and his demonstrated concern for the powerless and the abused or ignored are compelling.

Iowa: snow storm tests candidates and voters

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B3: Here’s a dispatch filed Satuday afternoon by Carolyn Schmidt, our citizen journalist, operating out of Cedar Rapids, Falls, Iowa, an election hot spot

As always, Iowans take the snow, Pakistan assassination, and all in stride

By Carolyn Schmidt

Cedar Rapids, Iowa–We had a 4-5 inch snow fall Friday on top of what’s already on the ground (19 inches for the month of December). Richardson cancelled his appearances, but the others soldiered on–evidently not expecting much of a turnout for their rallies. Iowans take this all in stride, of course, so when Obama noted that the 900 people who showed up to hear him at Northwest Junior High School in Coralville (a growing city just outside of Iowa City) was “an unbelievable crowd,” one woman said, “I went to see him in Cedar Rapids in an ice storm that was 10 times worse than this.”

More than 200 people turned out to hear John Edwards at a restaurant in the smaller town of Independence, and Edwards admitted he’d anticipated about 50.

Today’s Ammianoliner

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Sweeney Todd, spokesperson for the Golden Gate Restaurant Association, said, “We can’t afford health care. It costs an arm and a leg.” mmmmmmmmand a chomping sound.

(From the answering machine of Sup. Tom Ammiano on Friday, Dec. 28, 2007.) B3