By Tim Redmond
Lots of people are analyzing what happened in Maine, and the fight goes on.
But I think Paul Hogarth, who just got back from Maine, hit on the most important (sadly) point:
The single most important factor in the politics of same-sex marriage is demographics. The younger the voters, the more likely they support same-sex marriage. Maine has the third-oldest population in the country; California has the seventh youngest.
I hate to be dissin’ old folks (I’m getting closer and closer to that particular demographic myself) but it’s the hard, cold reality: Get young people to vote in large numbers, and we win. In fact, in some ways this debate is already over — in ten years, passing a same-sex marriage measure will be far easier, and most states will have already taken that step. The demographic train only goes one way.
Which is of limited confort to people who want to get married now, not in ten years — but it’s important to understand, especially when we debate when to go back to the ballot in CA.
I’m for trying again in 2010, with a better-run campaign that doesn’t try to hide queer people from the voters. I also recognize that 2012 will be easier than 2010, and 2014 will be easier than 2012, and 2020 will be a slam dunk. So I don’t buy the argument that you can only go back to the voters once.
We need to start a statewide effort to register young voters and activate them in huge numbers. They’re out there, and thousands upon thousands turn 18 every day. When they go to the polls in larger numbers than their grandparents, then this battle is over.