By Tim Redmond
Calvin Welch thinks it is. Here’s his analysis:
It’s not over yet folks. Were are down 2,400 votes with a significant number of votes yet to be counted from areas that we expect to do well in.
According to the information I got from the Department of Elections, there are some 113,000 absentee and early voting ballots yet to be counted, in addition to some 17,000 “provisional “ ballots. Discount the provisiona’s as most are not valid.
The election night count is weighted towards returns from district with supervisors races in order to get these races’ outcome first: Dist 1,3,4,5,7,9,and 11 with an undercounting from Districts 2,6,8,and 10. Since the election night pool of votes were weighted to the big conservative and “swing districts” (1,3,4,7 and 11) and only D5 and D9 of the progressive districts were included in the count, chances are that a significant portion of the yet to be counted votes are from D 2,6,8,and 10 — the last three of which we figure to be supportive of Prop B.
Check the DOE web site at about 4:30PM or so this afternoon as they will post an update. If the past is truce they will count about 20,000 votes or so (more or less) a day so we may have a day or two to go before this bad boy is done.