Volume 43 Number 46

Editor’s Notes

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tredmond@sfbg.com

Nobody really thinks the state budget deal is going to hold, and nobody really thinks San Francisco’s budget deficit is actually closed. So while the Legislature is in recess and the supervisors are moving on to other things, it’s worth thinking about what the next few months will bring. It won’t be pretty.

Paul Hogarth, writing for the online publication BeyondChron, pointed out Aug. 6 that San Francisco will lose more money due to state budget cuts than the city will gain from federal stimulus spending. The numbers are complicated and fluid (San Francisco will lose $100 million that the state will "borrow," but the city can immediately go to the bond market and borrow against the state debt — with any luck at the same interest rate the state will pay the city, so that should be a wash. Should — unless the lenders don’t want to gamble on the state’s debt.) But no matter how you slice it, San Francisco will be out something on the order of $18 million in state cuts alone.

There’s also the fact that nobody knows what the economy will do over the next six months. If employment doesn’t pick up, and consumer sales don’t pick up, and enough businesses get away with demanding property tax reductions, the revenue numbers projected by the Newsom administration will be wrong and things will be even worse. Sup. Ross Mirkarimi, who’s on the Budget Committee, told me he’s expecting at least $100 million in red ink for next year’s budget, and some of that will start to show up this fall.

I can’t even imagine what the 2010-11 budget will look like. By the time budget hearings begin next June, Gavin Newsom will either have won the Democratic primary for governor, and will have entirely checked out of City Hall, or he will have lost and will be angry, bitter, and vengeful.

We were mildly critical of Budget Committee Chair John Avalos this summer; he cut a deal with Newsom that requires the supervisors to believe that the mayor will work with them on any midyear cuts. The problem is that Newsom can’t be trusted. He’s already broken parts of this budget deal. So when, as is almost certain, he breaks his promise to work with the board on midyear cuts, the supervisors will have to take a much more aggressive stance than they did this summer.

Newsom will be in the middle of a heated race for governor — he won’t want to cut cops or firefighters, and he won’t even talk about taxes. (Although a recent Gallup Poll shows that only 46 percent of Americans think their taxes are too high, the lowest number to hold that view since 1961.)

It’s going to be war, and the progressives on the board need to be ready for it — or they’re going to get rolled, again. *

The big prison duck

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EDITORIAL A panel of federal judges has ordered the release of 44,000 California prisoners, sending politicians of both parties scrambling for cover and throwing a crucial issue into the heart of the Democratic campaign for governor.

And so far, both major candidates are ducking, badly.

The state prison system is a mess; any sane person knows that. California incarcerates 170,000 people in facilities designed for less than half that number. Sick inmates don’t get to see doctors; mentally ill or drug-addicted inmates often get no treatment at all. It’s so bad that a federal monitor appointed by the courts has demanded that the state spend $8 billion building new medical facilities for prisoners.

Meanwhile, inmates are crowded into makeshift bunks in gymnasiums and dayrooms. The few modest rehabilitative programs California offers are stretched so thin that many inmates get no job training or violence-prevention skills at all. The parole system is overburdened and focuses far too heavily on people with minor, nonviolent offenses.

And politicians wonder why the state has a recidivism rate of 70 percent.

The solutions aren’t rocket science, either. There’s a clear reason why incarceration rates have jumped so high: harsh sentencing laws, passed by the Legislature and the voters with no concern for the costs of implementation. The state’s three-strikes law is so draconian that thousands of people are serving 25 years to life for nonviolent felonies that typically would carry a sentence of a few years. So the first thing the Legislature and the governor need to do is change the sentencing laws (and give back discretion to judges).

Then there’s a drug problem. California prisons are packed with people serving sentences for drug possession — and most of these people, and society in general, would be better served, at less than half the cost, with treatment programs.

And frankly it wouldn’t be hard to release 44,000 inmates without any new threats to public safety. The vast majority of the inmates in California prisons are going to be released at some point anyway; in fact, the state now releases about 10,000 people a month. The early releases envisioned by the federal courts could simply mean allowing people who have served, say, three years of a four-year sentence to leave prison and shift to the custody of the parole system a few months earlier than scheduled. Many of those people are nonviolent offenders, particularly drug offenders.

With the state in a catastrophic fiscal condition, the cost of corrections ought to be a huge issue for the candidates for governor, particularly the Democrats. Mayor Gavin Newsom and Attorney General Jerry Brown ought to be promoting a plan that would end the insanity of "three strikes," offer alternatives to incarceration for nonviolent offenders and drug addicts, and allow early releases to bring down the current unsustainable incarcerated population.

So what are these candidates, supposedly alternatives to the Republican agenda, saying?

Here’s Brown, quoted in the Los Angeles Times: "Government is established to protect the safety and security of its citizens, and these wholesale releases are totally incompatible with that." Where’s Newsom? We called his campaign press office for comment, and haven’t heard back.

This is unacceptable.

It’s typical for Republicans to use scare tactics and talk about crime as a cheap way to win votes. But Newsom and Brown ought to know better. This is no time for demagoguery — the prison crisis is serious, festering, and a major factor in the state’s financial mess. If the two leading Democrats can’t come up with honest answers, it’s time for someone else to enter the race. *

Psychic Dream Astrology

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ARIES

March 21-April 19

You have some secret desire you may not even be admitting to yourself, and it’s motivating you to be a tad shady with folks. When you’re not being true to yourself, you can only be so real with others. Look at what you are feeling — even if you don’t like it — so you can get those feet of yours back on the ground.

TAURUS

April 20-May 20

Hoarding never makes people happy. There’s no room for the new if you don’t let go of the old. As shitty as it may be to get rid of things, attitudes, or relationships, that’s just what you have to do, Taurus. There is all of this amazing potential in front of you, but you’ve got to let go of all those strings you have attaching you to your past.

GEMINI

May 21-June 21

We are all just animals: messy, instinct-based beasts. This week, channel your inner beastliness into all you do with the wisdom and foresight of your human potential. Frig whatever role you’ve been playing and find what’s most true for you. Don’t hide behind habit. Get up your courage and be a smarty-pants wild thing instead.

CANCER

June 22-July 22

When you get emotionally blocked, life stagnates quickly. Fears about love are coming up for you: there’s no way around it. If you’re not getting your needs met, ask yourself why. Do folks know what you need but don’t want to put out? Do you need to be clearer? Figure it out so you can move on.

LEO

July 23-Aug. 22

You’re such a creative person — why is it so hard for you to bust through your relationship patterns and be real? Try to be more loving as you assert your limits with others. The more direct you are about your needs, the more flexible you can be about others’ needs. Integrate your internal opposites for a more authentic you.

VIRGO

Aug. 23-Sept. 22

Admit it: you are putting all that careful energy into being painstaking with things so that you can build up to the Earth’s biggest worrygasm. You get a little thrill of accomplishment from having a really good problem to stress over. Now your secret is out! Outgrow this broken love and develop a new relationship to getting things dealt with.

LIBRA

Sept. 23-Oct. 22

Everybody’s changing, and if you don’t start change too, your same-old, same-old will be out of step, when once it was just right. In your efforts to hold your own, you run the risk of being inflexible, and that shit’ll backfire on you. Never forget to be receptive when you stand tall, lest you alienate others.

SCORPIO

Oct. 23-Nov. 21

You can’t build a time machine. No matter how much you lament what ails you in the present, it won’t change things. This is a real cut-your-losses kind of moment, where you can make the best of your situation by accepting it and working with what you’ve got in this reality.

SAGITTARIUS

Nov. 22-Dec. 21

Your home life needs care and attention, Sag. You deserve a spot that you are happy to be in, a place that serves as a sanctuary from the rushing and buzzing of your life. Carve yourself a piece of peace in your dwelling, even if it means leaving your over-crowded apartment and finding a café where you can sit and regroup.

CAPRICORN

Dec. 22-Jan. 19

Pick your battles wisely. You are so worried about so many things you are missing out on the opportunities in front of you. Avoid the deadly lure of FOMOs (fear of missing out), and make some damn decisions. Consider your own well-being and what you know of your self so you can improve your life, not just react to it.

AQUARIUS

Jan. 20-Feb. 18

Not knowing the answers is really hard on a Know-It-All, and can induce panic where once there was a smooth operator. You are not supposed to have the answers right now; it’s just time to watch things unfold around you. Rushing and pushing will backfire.

PISCES

Feb. 19-March 20

It looks like you are caught up in some serious stress. It may feel like the mountain in front of you is so high, you’d rather turn back than climb it. Look at your own conflicts about what you want, because your ambiguities are adding to the mess you’re in. Be open to letting something new enter your life. *

Jessica Lanyadoo has been a psychic dreamer for 15 years. Check out her Web site at www.lovelanyadoo.com or contact her for an astrology or intuitive reading at (415) 336-8354 or dreamyastrology@gmail.com.